It’s a question that comes up anytime the economy wobbles: Are collectibles a safe haven during uncertainty — or just another volatile asset class in disguise?
The idea of collectibles as “recession-proof” has long been romanticized. After all, when public markets dip, tangible goods like rare watches, vintage cards, fine art, and luxury handbags offer a reassuring sense of permanence. But the reality is more nuanced — and more interesting — than a simple yes or no.
Let’s take a closer look.
Luxury Watches: Resilient, But Not Immune
During the 2020–2022 bull run, luxury watches saw unprecedented growth, driven by pandemic-fueled demand, crypto wealth, and supply chain bottlenecks. But as macroeconomic sentiment shifted in 2022 and inflation hit consumers, prices of flagship models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet saw notable corrections.
For example, the Rolex Daytona 116500LN in steel — which peaked around $50K on the secondary market in early 2022 — cooled to closer to $30K by mid-2023, according to WatchCharts. Still, that figure remained well above its original retail price, reflecting enduring demand.
Watches may bend, but they rarely break. The collector base is strong, and blue-chip models remain cultural icons. But expecting a constant uptrend, especially in speculative environments, is wishful thinking.
Art & Alternative Assets: Flight to Quality
The fine art market has historically shown resilience during downturns — but with a clear caveat: quality matters.
According to Art Basel and UBS’s 2023 Art Market Report, high-end works ($1M+) continued to sell briskly at auction, even as the broader market cooled. In contrast, mid-tier and emerging artists experienced slower sales and more conservative bidding.
Collectors aren’t leaving the art world — they’re just moving more cautiously within it. When budgets tighten, buyers tend to focus on works that are historically significant, well-documented, and proven to hold value across cycles.
Trading Cards: A COVID Boom, Then a Sober Rebalance
If watches bent, the card market boomed — then corrected sharply.
During the pandemic, graded sports and Pokémon cards saw explosive growth, driven by nostalgia, stimulus money, and influencer hype. A 1st Edition Shadowless Charizard PSA 10 sold for over $400K in 2021. But by late 2023, the same card hovered closer to $275K, reflecting a broader cooling of pandemic-era exuberance.
Still, this isn’t a collapse — it’s a correction. Ultra-rare, high-grade cards continue to set records, but low-population commons and “junk slab” inventory have lost momentum. Like the art world, the card market rewards discernment — not just accumulation.
Luxury Handbags: Quiet Strength in a Quiet Luxury Market
Hermès remains a fascinating case study. Despite economic headwinds, the Birkin and Kelly continue to hold — and even grow — in value. In 2023, Sotheby’s sold a Diamond Himalaya Birkin for over $450,000, and resale prices on common colorways have remained firm.
Unlike more speculative markets, handbag collecting is tied closely to access and scarcity. Waitlists, store relationships, and limited releases help insulate values, even during downturns. The shift toward “quiet luxury” has only added to this category’s staying power — subtle status over loud logos.
So… Are They Recession-Proof?
The answer is: somewhat — with context.
Collectibles aren’t immune to economic cycles, but they behave differently than traditional assets. They’re illiquid, passion-driven, and heavily influenced by culture, rarity, and provenance. In some cases, they zig when stocks zag. In others, they simply tread water.
But one thing is clear: not all collectibles are created equal. During downturns, the best pieces — iconic references, pristine condition, airtight provenance — tend to hold. The rest? They get reevaluated, repriced, or passed over.
Final Thought
Recession-proof is a stretch. Resilient is more accurate — especially when collectors focus on quality, scarcity, and long-term passion rather than short-term speculation.
For those who collect with intention, the goal isn't just to weather a downturn — it's to build something meaningful enough to outlast one.
